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Emerson College Polling Methodology
Emerson Polling has received recognition for accurately assessing voting intentions throughout the 2016 Presidential Election - including top rankings by Bloomberg News and Nate Silver’s’ FiveThirtyEight - ?using a landline-only sample design. In an ongoing effort to improve upon our work, in 2017 we experimented with the use of online panels. Our analysis found that an equal combination of landline and online participants created a representative artificial sample. After completing this study, we created a new sample design and developed the Emerson College Poll.
The Emerson Poll methodology pairs an automated system that collects data over landline phones with an online panel of participants. The modes of data analyses are non-probability and deductive (from "general" to "specific") in nature, so instead of using classical statistics to quantify the ‘uncertainty’ or range of scores a poll represents, we use Bayesian Statistical methods, that produce the mathematical likelihood of an event of interest, and that are inductive in nature (from "specific" to "general"), for data analyses in best estimating the true population mean proportion. Due to their inductive nature and probability oriented approach, Bayesian methods are often called "Evidence-Based" Statistics (Satake, 2014, 2016, and 2017).
Since implementing this new innovative methodology in 2018, the Emerson Poll was the first to put Connor Lamb (D) ahead of his rival, and the closest poll to predict?the actual margin of his victory in the PA-18 Special Election for Congress. Our poll?in the AZ-8 Special Election for Congress had Debbie Lesko (R) within a point of her final margin of victory. Most recently, in both the CA Governor and US Senate primaries, and the Ohio-12 Special election, the Emerson Poll results were within a point of the actual results. We eagerly look forward to continue testing the validity and reliability of Emerson Polling in this current election cycle.
About Emerson College Polling
Emerson College Polling is part of the School of Communication at Emerson College and is designed to contribute to the educational mission of the College by providing students with valuable opportunities to enhance their educational experience by conducing public opinion surveys on business, economics, political and social issues and studying local, state, national and international populations.
The overarching goal of Emerson College Polling?is to create an opportunity for a dialogue among the student body and the general public on issues of the day, and a subsequent forum to communicate relevant information on such ideas that advances a major shared objective across academia, business and government – a greater appreciation of civic engagement.
Emerson College Polling has been ranked as the most accurate collegiate pollster by Bloomberg News, and successfully executed multiple polls during the 2016 Presidential Elections, including in wide-ranging?states such as OH, NV, and NH. Emerson College Polling provides students a unique opportunity to administer polls and present their wide-ranging topics. Our student's research has been featured on MSNBC, FOX News, CNN and in the Economist.
Emerson College Polling is a Charter Member of the?American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)?Transparency Initiative— AAPOR is the leading professional organization of public opinion and survey research professionals in the United States, with members from academia, media, government, the nonprofit sector, and private industry. The Transparency Initiative membership demonstrates Emerson College Polling's?commitment to transparency in our research methods and our pledge to abide by AAPOR’s Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
Emerson College Polling Weekly
Weekly Podcast for Nationally Renowned Poll on Public Opinion, Politics, US Elections, News.